Candidates for Rookie of the Year - Mid-Season Report

We are now just about half-way through the NFL season, and rookies already made a significant impact on this season. This is especially true in Atlanta and Baltimore, where two rookie QBs are leading their teams to 4-3 records. That's not too shabby, considering Hall of Famer Troy Aikman was 0-11 as a rookie in games he started for Dallas in 1989.

Here's Aikman's stat line from his rookie season, just for comparison:

Season	Team	Pos	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	Int	Sck	Rate
1989	DAL	QB	155	293	52.9	1,749	6.0	159.0	9	18	19	55.7

Contrast those stats to those of Matt Ryan, QB ATL, and Joe Flacco, QB BAL:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Comp	Att	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	Int	1st	1st%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	Rate
1	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	116	205	56.6	29.3	1,441	7.0	205.9	7	5	65	31.7	70T	20	5	9	79.7
2	Joe Flacco	BAL	QB	119	191	62.3	27.3	1,216	6.4	173.7	3	7	62	32.5	70T	10	3	12	70.5

To me, if the Rookie of the Year (RotY) is the player who comes in to the NFL and has the biggest impact on his team, Ryan would have to be the runaway leader at this point of the season. Last year, the Falcons were 4-12, so they already matched their win total from all of last season. Baltimore was 5-11, so they were at least one win better than Atlanta. Plus, Flacco is still experiencing growing pains, as evidenced by his 3 TD - 7 INT ratio.

I did wonder if perhaps some other rookie might challenge Ryan for RotY honors. The next most obvious place to look is at RB, and here are the top rookie stats at that position:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Att	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	Lng	1st	1st%	20+	40+	FUM
1	Chris Johnson	TEN	RB	122	17.4	626	5.1	89.4	4	66T	26	21.3	3	2	0
2	Matt Forte	CHI	RB	147	21.0	515	3.5	73.6	4	50T	25	17.0	2	1	0
3	Steve Slaton	HOU	RB	104	14.9	476	4.6	68.0	5	50	25	24.0	6	2	0
4	Darren McFadden	OAK	RB	67	11.2	341	5.1	56.8	1	50	13	19.4	4	1	2
5	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	RB	96	12.0	362	3.8	45.2	5	24	20	20.8	2	0	1
6	Felix Jones	DAL	RB	30	5.0	266	8.9	44.3	3	60T	12	40.0	3	1	0

All of these rookies have had a huge impact on the NFL this year, so a strong argument could be made for RotY for any of them. I haven't yet seen any pundit compare this batch of rookie RBs to the fabled 1983 QB draft class, but a solid comparison could be made there, too. I realize that none of the top six backs listed above are averaging over 100 Yds/game, but given that only one, Matt Forte in Chicago, is the featured back in his offense, that should be expected. McFadden in Oakland is still in a RB by Committee (RBBC) situation with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, which hurts his overall numbers. Almost all the RBs listed here are near or above the 4.0 Yds/carry benchmark for RB success in the NFL, and Felix Jones of Dallas has that ridiculous 8.9 Yds/carry average.

Just to be thorough, I also looked at the top receiving rookies, but the relative impact a WR can have is very limited. Here are the top two rookies who had any stats to really speak of here:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Eddie Royal	DEN	WR	39	392	10.1	65.3	29	2	4	0	19	48.7	1
2	DeSean Jackson	PHI	WR	32	505	15.8	72.1	60	1	11	2	20	62.5	1

It could be that Donnie Avery, WR in St. Louis, could join this list by the end of the season. He has come on strong in just the last two games for the Rams, but he still ranks sixth on the list, after these two WRs and three rookie RBs.

There's the quick list of NFL rookies that should be considered for RotY honors. As I said previously, if voting were to end today, my money would be on Ryan in Atlanta. I'm sure he is giving owner Arthur Blank a great deal of relief these days.

The Madden Curse is Lurking

It's too early to say that Brett Favre is suffering from the EA Sports Madden NFL curse, which was covered in a previous post. Go back to that post, though, and I guessed correctly that the Billy Goat curse was in full force on the 2008 Chicago Cubbies!

What is readily apparent is that Favre's stats have really fallen off the cliff since the NY Jets had their bye in week 5. Here are Brett's official stats from NFL.com:

Regular Season				Games		Passing										Rushing				Fumbles
WK	Game Date	Opp	Result	G	GS	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	TD	Int	Sck	SckY	Rate	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	FUM	Lost
1	09/07	@ MIA	W 20-14	1	1	15	22	68.2	194	8.8	2	0	3	13	125.9	3	2	0.7	0	2	1
2	09/14	NE	L 10-19	1	1	18	26	69.2	181	7.0	1	1	2	29	85.6	2	6	3.0	0	--	--
3	09/22	@ SD	L 29-48	1	1	30	42	71.4	271	6.5	3	2	3	30	92.5	2	5	2.5	0	--	--
4	09/28	ARI	W 56-35	1	1	24	34	70.6	289	8.5	6	1	2	5	123.7	--	--	--	--	--	--
5	Bye			--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	0.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
6	10/12	CIN	W 26-14	1	1	25	33	75.8	189	5.7	1	2	2	23	73.9	1	-1	-1.0	0	1	1
7	10/19	@ OAK	L 13-16	1	1	21	38	55.3	197	5.2	0	2	3	21	47.8	2	5	2.5	0	3	0
TOTAL				6	6	133	195	68.2	1,321	6.8	13	8	15	121	92.3	10	17	1.7	0	6	2

Through the first four games, Favre had passer ratings no lower than 85, 12 TDs versus 4 INTs, and was completing over 70.1% of his passes. For a guy who is slightly older than I am, those were awesome numbers! Forget the statistical anomally of throwing 6 TDs in one game; who does that?! Favre definitely still had it through those first four games of the season, even if the Jets were only 2-2.

However, the last two games since the bye are a different story, as you can see above. The passer rating has fallen off the table. Favre completed just 55% of his throws in an ugly West Coast loss to Oakland. He has 4 INTs to just 1 TD in two games. He also continues to average 2.5 sacks per game, which could increase the wear and tear on the ol' QB. While they didn't lose the 3 fumbles Favre had against Oakland, those have to be a concern, as well.

Again, it's too early to tell if the Oakland game was the start of the drop-off in production associated with the Madden curse, or if it was just a one-game blip on an otherwise very solid year. We'll keep an eye on it...