The Wacky, Wooly, Wildcard Weekend

What to make of the NFL Wildcard games this weekend? None of the favored teams everyone predicted to win actually won. Not that I pay much, if any, attention to the betting lines, mind you. I also didn't watch the talking heads on ESPN to see what they thought and which teams they predicted as this weekend's winners. I'm talking about my own estimations of the NFL teams playing this weekend, which regularly is one of the most unpredictable weekends of the NFL season.

In the AFC games, yesterday saw an 8-8 San Diego team taking on the 12-4 Indy Colts. Sure, both teams had been on a winning streak lately (the Chargers won their last four games just to make the playoffs, and the Colts won nine in a row after a shaky start to their season), but very few people expected San Diego to win, even playing at home. LaDanian Tomlinson, their star RB, was hurt and sidelined for the majority of the game. Norv Turner, the coach, has not proved his mettle in previous playoff games. For all the promise of Philip Rivers, he simply cannot compare to Peyton Manning at QB. Manning proved this year that he can will his team to win, despite the declining skills of his favorite WR, Marvin Harrison, and the inability of the Colt's offensive line to open holes for the Colts runners.

And yet, the Chargers proved victorious, winning in OT behind the superb running of their diminuitive RB, Darren Sproles. At times, the ability of the 5'6" Sproles to hide behind his blockers and shoot through the smallest of gaps in the Colts defense evoked the running of 5'7" Jaquizz Rodgers of Oregon State, when he shredded the USC defense in September.

In the other AFC game, a surprising 11-5 Baltimore team, playing with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach, soundly defeated an even more surprising 11-5 Miami team. Miami, of course, went from 1-15 just a year ago to winning their Division this year, despite strong performances by New England, NY Jets, and a fast start by the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens do have an incredible defense, and perhaps they found a way to bottle up the Wildcat offense run by Miami this year. Despite the similar records, Baltimore was the wildcard team, forced to win on the road in Miami to advance. This must have been another upset, as home teams usually get 7 points just for the home field advantage.

Over in the NFC, everyone had written off the Arizona Cardinals as DOA in the playoffs. At 9-7, they won a very weak NFC West Division despite being 2-3 in their last five games. They looked terrible on the road, going 3-5 on the season, yet they were 6-0 within their own Division. And yet, playing at home against an 11-5 Atlanta Falcons team that had been on a three-game winning streak, the Cardinals won fairly easily. They never seemed to be really threatened in their 30-24 victory, despite Atlanta's superior running game.

In the other NFC game today between the Eagles and Vikings, the Eagles at 9-6-1 once again used their crushing, ball-hawking (and TD-scoring!) defense to win 26-14 on the road. The Vikings were 10-6 going into this game, although they had to win their final game of the season in order to clinch a playoff spot and their Division. At one point, when the Vikings' QB, Tavaris Jackson, had one completion for his previous 11 attempts, it certainly seemed as though the Vikes' coach should have switched for another QB. Perhaps Gus Frerotte was still hurt, and perhaps the Vikes really had no better option than Jackson.

What we saw this weekend were mirrors in both Conferences: one home team (Division winner) with a weaker record beat a wildcard team with a stronger record, and one wildcard team beat the home team when the records were the same or very similar. The upsets, both at home and on the road, came when the presumably weaker NFC and AFC West Division-winners actually pulled out strong games against the favored wildcard teams, and when the other wildcard teams pulled off their upsets against Division winners.

Not being able to predict which teams were going to win this weekend causes much consternation for fantasy football players like me. Many of the playoff FFB-variety games involve picking one lineup of players for the entirety of the playoffs, so any time a player's real team loses, it knocks another person out of your fantasy lineup. Or, if you're like me, the Colts' loss knocked three players out of my lineup. In the NFL.com Playoff Challenge game I'm in currently, I do get a maximum of eight lineup changes I can make before the Super Bowl to remain competitive, but having to make six changes after the wildcard weekend (I also had several Falcons and Dolphins on my squad) pretty much dooms me to also-run status.

That remains the beauty of the NFL today, however. Parity means that virtually any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. A team can rise from 1-15 to Division champ status in one season, even if that team can't win its playoff game. The Cardinals can actually win a playoff game for the first time in a generation. Anything seems possible at this point.

However, after the unpredictability of the wildcard weekend, the Division winners tend to assert themselves in the remaining games. Statistically speaking, wildcard matchups are the equivalent of a coin flip, with home teams winning only about 50% of the time. However, in the next round of the playoffs, home teams win about 70% of the time or better.* Arizona has to travel to Carolina, and the Eagles will travel to play the Giants. Expect the home teams to win both of those contests. Baltimore will travel to Tennessee, and San Diego has to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh, so both home teams have to be favored in those games, too. You can bet that my fantasy lineup will be modified to reflect the strengths of the Giants and the Titans, teams who have the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl. I really thought the Colts could perform a similar feat as the G-men did last year, winning the Super Bowl via the wildcard route, but they fell flat against San Diego.

* Update: TMQ on ESPN posted the win-loss record of home teams in the Divisional playoff round. It's 55-17 for home teams since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, good for a 76.4% winning percentage, which is about as sure a thing as you can get in the NFL these days.

It's honestly hard to say which teams will make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Each team has its own weaknesses and strengths, and predicting which team will win it all is anyone's guess. Again, that's the beauty of the NFL playoffs. That's why they play the games, so the winner can be decided on the field.

Win or go home, as they say.

It's Anyone's Ballgame

Here's part of why I love the NFL: after nine weeks of football games, and with most teams having played eight games thus far due to bye weeks, here are the current standings:

American Football Conference - 2008 Regular Season
AFC East Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
New York Jets	5	3	0	.625	208	187	21	25	3-1	2-2	2-1	.667	4-3	.571	1-0	2W	4-1
New England Patriots	5	3	0	.625	168	150	18	16	3-1	2-2	1-1	.500	3-3	.500	2-0	1L	3-2
Buffalo Bills	5	3	0	.625	182	169	13	19	3-1	2-2	0-2	.000	3-2	.600	2-1	2L	2-3
Miami Dolphins	4	4	0	.500	171	163	8	19	2-2	2-2	2-1	.667	4-3	.571	0-1	2W	3-2
AFC North Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Pittsburgh Steelers	6	2	0	.750	178	116	62	21	2-1	4-1	3-0	1.000	5-0	1.000	1-2	1W	4-1
Baltimore Ravens	5	3	0	.625	171	137	34	19	3-1	2-2	3-1	.750	5-3	.625	0-0	3W	3-2
Cleveland Browns	3	5	0	.375	142	160	-18	14	1-3	2-2	1-3	.250	2-3	.400	1-2	1L	3-2
Cincinnati Bengals	1	8	0	.111	125	236	-111	13	1-3	0-5	0-3	.000	1-6	.143	0-2	1W	1-4
AFC South Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Tennessee Titans	8	0	0	1.000	199	103	96	21	5-0	3-0	3-0	1.000	6-0	1.000	2-0	8W	5-0
Indianapolis Colts	4	4	0	.500	167	177	-10	21	2-2	2-2	1-2	.333	3-2	.600	1-2	1W	3-2
Jacksonville Jaguars	3	5	0	.375	160	172	-12	17	1-3	2-2	2-1	.667	3-5	.375	0-0	2L	2-3
Houston Texans	3	5	0	.375	196	213	-17	24	3-1	0-4	0-3	.000	2-4	.333	1-1	1L	3-2
AFC West Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Denver Broncos	4	4	0	.500	190	221	-31	21	3-2	1-2	2-1	.667	2-4	.333	2-0	3L	1-4
San Diego Chargers	3	5	0	.375	224	199	25	25	2-1	1-4	1-1	.500	3-3	.500	0-2	2L	2-3
Oakland Raiders	2	6	0	.250	107	201	-94	9	1-3	1-3	1-2	.333	2-4	.333	0-2	2L	1-4
Kansas City Chiefs	1	7	0	.125	126	223	-97	14	1-3	0-4	1-1	.500	1-4	.200	0-3	4L	1-4
National Football Conference - 2008 Regular Season
NFC East Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
New York Giants	7	1	0	.875	226	129	97	24	5-0	2-1	2-0	1.000	5-0	1.000	2-1	3W	4-1
Washington Redskins	6	3	0	.667	171	168	3	17	3-2	3-1	2-1	.667	5-2	.714	1-1	1L	3-2
Philadelphia Eagles	5	3	0	.625	220	144	76	23	3-1	2-2	0-2	.000	4-3	.571	1-0	3W	3-2
Dallas Cowboys	5	4	0	.556	216	219	-3	27	3-1	2-3	1-2	.333	3-4	.429	2-0	1L	2-3
NFC North Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Chicago Bears	5	3	0	.625	223	173	50	25	3-1	2-2	3-0	1.000	4-3	.571	1-0	2W	4-1
Green Bay Packers	4	4	0	.500	210	178	32	24	2-2	2-2	2-0	1.000	3-3	.500	1-1	1L	2-3
Minnesota Vikings	4	4	0	.500	182	188	-6	19	3-1	1-3	1-2	.333	3-2	.600	1-2	1W	3-2
Detroit Lions	0	8	0	.000	137	239	-102	15	0-3	0-5	0-4	.000	0-7	.000	0-1	8L	0-5
NFC South Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Carolina Panthers	6	2	0	.750	174	127	47	18	5-0	1-2	2-1	.667	4-2	.667	2-0	2W	4-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	3	0	.667	200	147	53	20	4-0	2-3	2-1	.667	5-2	.714	1-1	1W	3-2
Atlanta Falcons	5	3	0	.625	177	154	23	18	3-0	2-3	0-2	.000	3-3	.500	2-0	1W	3-2
New Orleans Saints	4	4	0	.500	216	195	21	27	4-1	0-3	1-1	.500	2-3	.400	2-1	1W	3-2
NFC West Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Arizona Cardinals	5	3	0	.625	234	184	50	29	3-0	2-3	2-0	1.000	3-2	.600	2-1	1W	3-2
Seattle Seahawks	2	6	0	.250	151	210	-59	16	1-3	1-3	2-1	.667	2-5	.286	0-1	1L	1-4
San Francisco 49ers	2	6	0	.250	171	230	-59	17	1-4	1-2	1-2	.333	2-5	.286	0-1	5L	0-5
St. Louis Rams	2	6	0	.250	125	235	-110	12	1-3	1-3	0-2	.000	2-4	.333	0-2	2L	2-3

We can see that many Divisions have a logjam of teams with the same won-loss records, although each team arrived at their record by different means. No one, really, is running away with a given Division, other than perhaps the Tennessee Titans at 8-0. But even the Titans have some holes and could suffer several losses before the end of the season. No team is dominating the way the Colts and Patriots have in recent years.

Several things really stand out to me. The Buffalo Bills just two games ago looked to be dominant in the AFC East at 5-1. After two consecutive losses, they are tied with NE and NYJ for the overall lead, but are behind on tiebreakers having lost both Divisional games thus far.

In the AFC North, the Steelers look as strong as ever, but the Ravens and their rookie QB are right behind them. With Ben Roethlisberger getting hurt again in last night's game, that Division could be a toss-up.

The AFC South appears to be Tennessee's to lose, but the Colts are always dangerous. It's not inconceivable to think that Indy could string together a couple of victories and challenge the Titans for the Divisional title. Indy does have Bob Sanders back in the lineup, and as long as he stays healthy, he improves both the defense and (strangely enough) the offense of the Colts.

No one seems to want to win the AFC West, with every team on a minimum two game losing streak. A Division leader at 4-4 but riding a three-game losing streak -- and 1-4 in their last five games? OMG!

So much for the NFC East being the toughest Division in football. Things change from week to week, and of course injuries have had a lot to do with the Cowboys being 2-3 in their last five games. The defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants look as good as ever, but it still blows my mind that their one loss came to the 3-5 Cleveland Browns!

The NFC North is anyone's Division at this point. Well, anyone except Detroit. Who ever thought that Chicago Bears fans would be crying over the loss of starting QB Kyle Orton to injury?

The Carolina Panthers have looked good this season, but they still have Tampa and Atlanta right behind them in the standings. The NO Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL right now, but they are 0-3 in the Division and are in danger of missing the playoffs.

The Arizona Cardinals are the one bright spot in the NFC West, and who saw that coming? Seattle has owned that Division for so long, a person could practically pencil in Seattle for the playoffs every single year, no matter what their record was. No longer. Not when the Cards are 5-3 and everyone else is 2-6.

One of the best things about the NFL is that so many teams remain mathematically alive for the playoffs, even deep into the 16 game season. Last year, during the final week of the season, there were only a few games that did not carry playoff implications of any sort. That was pretty amazing. Even teams that are 4-4 after eight games this season could put together a winning streak or two and finish 10-6 or better. An 8-8 team could win the AFC West, and don't think for a minute that Roger Goodell doesn't pray every day for that Division winner to have at least a .500 record!

So there is still a lot of football to be played, even though there are only eight games left for all teams. The Bengals, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Redskins all have byes this week, the last bye week for any team in the NFL. Every game becomes that much more important for the rest of the season. Just one lucky bounce here, one fumble recovery there, or one tipped pass for an interception over there, can completely change a team's playoff fortunes at this point. Any given Sunday, indeed!