The Wacky, Wooly, Wildcard Weekend

What to make of the NFL Wildcard games this weekend? None of the favored teams everyone predicted to win actually won. Not that I pay much, if any, attention to the betting lines, mind you. I also didn't watch the talking heads on ESPN to see what they thought and which teams they predicted as this weekend's winners. I'm talking about my own estimations of the NFL teams playing this weekend, which regularly is one of the most unpredictable weekends of the NFL season.

In the AFC games, yesterday saw an 8-8 San Diego team taking on the 12-4 Indy Colts. Sure, both teams had been on a winning streak lately (the Chargers won their last four games just to make the playoffs, and the Colts won nine in a row after a shaky start to their season), but very few people expected San Diego to win, even playing at home. LaDanian Tomlinson, their star RB, was hurt and sidelined for the majority of the game. Norv Turner, the coach, has not proved his mettle in previous playoff games. For all the promise of Philip Rivers, he simply cannot compare to Peyton Manning at QB. Manning proved this year that he can will his team to win, despite the declining skills of his favorite WR, Marvin Harrison, and the inability of the Colt's offensive line to open holes for the Colts runners.

And yet, the Chargers proved victorious, winning in OT behind the superb running of their diminuitive RB, Darren Sproles. At times, the ability of the 5'6" Sproles to hide behind his blockers and shoot through the smallest of gaps in the Colts defense evoked the running of 5'7" Jaquizz Rodgers of Oregon State, when he shredded the USC defense in September.

In the other AFC game, a surprising 11-5 Baltimore team, playing with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach, soundly defeated an even more surprising 11-5 Miami team. Miami, of course, went from 1-15 just a year ago to winning their Division this year, despite strong performances by New England, NY Jets, and a fast start by the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens do have an incredible defense, and perhaps they found a way to bottle up the Wildcat offense run by Miami this year. Despite the similar records, Baltimore was the wildcard team, forced to win on the road in Miami to advance. This must have been another upset, as home teams usually get 7 points just for the home field advantage.

Over in the NFC, everyone had written off the Arizona Cardinals as DOA in the playoffs. At 9-7, they won a very weak NFC West Division despite being 2-3 in their last five games. They looked terrible on the road, going 3-5 on the season, yet they were 6-0 within their own Division. And yet, playing at home against an 11-5 Atlanta Falcons team that had been on a three-game winning streak, the Cardinals won fairly easily. They never seemed to be really threatened in their 30-24 victory, despite Atlanta's superior running game.

In the other NFC game today between the Eagles and Vikings, the Eagles at 9-6-1 once again used their crushing, ball-hawking (and TD-scoring!) defense to win 26-14 on the road. The Vikings were 10-6 going into this game, although they had to win their final game of the season in order to clinch a playoff spot and their Division. At one point, when the Vikings' QB, Tavaris Jackson, had one completion for his previous 11 attempts, it certainly seemed as though the Vikes' coach should have switched for another QB. Perhaps Gus Frerotte was still hurt, and perhaps the Vikes really had no better option than Jackson.

What we saw this weekend were mirrors in both Conferences: one home team (Division winner) with a weaker record beat a wildcard team with a stronger record, and one wildcard team beat the home team when the records were the same or very similar. The upsets, both at home and on the road, came when the presumably weaker NFC and AFC West Division-winners actually pulled out strong games against the favored wildcard teams, and when the other wildcard teams pulled off their upsets against Division winners.

Not being able to predict which teams were going to win this weekend causes much consternation for fantasy football players like me. Many of the playoff FFB-variety games involve picking one lineup of players for the entirety of the playoffs, so any time a player's real team loses, it knocks another person out of your fantasy lineup. Or, if you're like me, the Colts' loss knocked three players out of my lineup. In the NFL.com Playoff Challenge game I'm in currently, I do get a maximum of eight lineup changes I can make before the Super Bowl to remain competitive, but having to make six changes after the wildcard weekend (I also had several Falcons and Dolphins on my squad) pretty much dooms me to also-run status.

That remains the beauty of the NFL today, however. Parity means that virtually any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. A team can rise from 1-15 to Division champ status in one season, even if that team can't win its playoff game. The Cardinals can actually win a playoff game for the first time in a generation. Anything seems possible at this point.

However, after the unpredictability of the wildcard weekend, the Division winners tend to assert themselves in the remaining games. Statistically speaking, wildcard matchups are the equivalent of a coin flip, with home teams winning only about 50% of the time. However, in the next round of the playoffs, home teams win about 70% of the time or better.* Arizona has to travel to Carolina, and the Eagles will travel to play the Giants. Expect the home teams to win both of those contests. Baltimore will travel to Tennessee, and San Diego has to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh, so both home teams have to be favored in those games, too. You can bet that my fantasy lineup will be modified to reflect the strengths of the Giants and the Titans, teams who have the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl. I really thought the Colts could perform a similar feat as the G-men did last year, winning the Super Bowl via the wildcard route, but they fell flat against San Diego.

* Update: TMQ on ESPN posted the win-loss record of home teams in the Divisional playoff round. It's 55-17 for home teams since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, good for a 76.4% winning percentage, which is about as sure a thing as you can get in the NFL these days.

It's honestly hard to say which teams will make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Each team has its own weaknesses and strengths, and predicting which team will win it all is anyone's guess. Again, that's the beauty of the NFL playoffs. That's why they play the games, so the winner can be decided on the field.

Win or go home, as they say.