Thursday, September 25, 2008

On Afghanistan and Pakistan

Please, please, PLEASE tell me we're not heading towards an expansion of the GWOT (global war on terror) into Pakistan. Would we really go to war against Pakistan after selling them F-16s? Do we really want to tangle with a nuclear power, even if they have no delivery mechanism that could reach the US? I really don't see how expanding the Afghan war could possibly burnish W's Presidential legacy.

On the one hand, I completely understand how difficult it was or is to prosecute the GWOT in Afghanistan when the enemy easily can blend into the general population, strike at opportune times, and then simply melt back into the lawless tribal areas of NW Pakistan, where they have enjoyed a protected status ever since 2001. Even when our close personal buddy and ally on the GWOT, Gen Pervez Musharraf, ruled Pakistan, the US military had a terrible time striking the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda effectively. Pakistani territory was deemed off-limits, and probably rightfully so. The Bush administration conducted diplomacy with Musharraf in the hopes of exerting enough influence to deny the Taliban safe haven in Waziristan, which is pictured below. Tidbit on Waziristan: it's officially known as one of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs) of Pakistan, and it directly borders Afghanistan.

There is some debate about just how much comfort and support the tribal leaders of Waziristan have provided to the Taliban, with some sources saying the local leaders, or Maliks, are resisting the "Talibanization" of their areas. However, these recent shooting incidents don't seem to be related at all to any kind of resistance movement against the Taliban. The impression I've always had is that Islamic radicals in Pakistan have long resented Musharraf's alignment with the Bush administration. News reports have long simmered with accounts of Pakistanis protesting US military actions against Al Qaeda.

All I can say, these minor shooting incidents between the US military and Pakistani forces seem to be escalating in recent days and weeks. If people aren't paying attention, they should be. If the American public isn't really worried about these developments, they should be. Yeah, yeah, I know the US MSM is going hog wild on the Wall Street meltdown, investment banking bankruptcies, and subsequent planned $700B bailout. Yes, that's Billion with a capital B. But since these are our own US military service members who are putting their lives at risk, we deserve to pay attention.

Maybe all is not as bleak as I first thought, or as bad as I first anticipated. The current President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari, is taking a hard line on border incursions while also reaching out to the US for support against Islamist extremists. Maybe he just needs to rein in his troops in NW Pakistan. Maybe our pilots need to do a better job of staying on the correct side of the border. I just don't like it one little bit when supposed allies start shooting at each other.

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