I mentioned this the other day, and it's gonna happen. Russia will find some pretense, some provocation for sending its troops into the Crimean Peninsula, and then that part of independent Ukraine will be independent no longer.
The news yesterday morning (WSJ article: subscription req'd) was that the government of Ukraine fell apart, in no small part over disagreements between pro-NATO and Western leaning President Viktor Yushchenko and pro-Russia Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The two are pictured here in happier times, probably when they announced their ruling "Orange" coalition. It was a shaky coalition to begin with, and now there were simply too many disagreements over how cozy Ukraine should be with either the West or with Russia.
They now have one month to try to put together another ruling coalition, or face new elections.
One quick glance at a map shows just how valuable Sevastopol and the Crimean Peninsula are to Russia:
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